For an inexperienced bettor, it seems rather strange to see the odds dropping especially when the movements are spontaneous. The question “why are odds dropping” comes naturally and is only logical. The common belief is that odds drop or rise due to some last-minute information that the bookmaker has acquired, like a managerial change or the absence of a star player. Seeing that this is the rarest case, we aim to show you everything you need to know about odds movements. And most importantly how to play with dropping odds and ultimately how to profit from dropping odds.
How to interpret dropping odds
Usually dropping odds simply means that the bookmaker is adjusting his prices to reflect true probabilities of an outcome or to balance his commission. Given that the odds were posted days or even weeks before the kick-off, this is the right thing to do. So if you notice a progressive drop of the odds during the days it doesn’t necessarily mean that there is something going on there. The bookmakers are dropping odds as a specific outcome is getting a lot of action. Nothing suspicious here. But if you notice a significant change in the odds (more than 20% or so) in the 70% of the trustworthy bookmakers around the globe, then it means that there is something going on here. Something you should learn about it and of course bet on it.
Dropping odds how to use
It is very easy to place a bet using dropping odds to your benefit, as long as you understand the fundamentals about betting odds movement. In this paragraph, we will examine how to use the dropping and increasing odds in pre-game markets, as well as in In-Play conditions. Let’s see them separately.
Pre-game odds movements
In order to use the dropping in pre-game markets, you need to feel sure that you know everything about the teams or the league you are about to bet on. So the concept here is quite simple. Just make sure you check your bookmaker the moment he publishes the odds for the forthcoming matchday. Knowing the teams or the league means that you can recognize immediately any mistakes on the odds or anticipate those matches where the odds will drop before the kick-off. The drop, especially if there is a European or cup fixture in between, could be significant and quite profitable.
For example that Tottenham are hosting Wolves next Sunday and the bookmakers predict a clear win for the Spurs. So the home win odds will be around 1.70 the draw at 3.75 and Wolves to win at 4.33. But both teams have European games midweek. And what’s more, Tottenham is travelling to Munich to face Bayern while Wolves are hosting Braga at the Molineux. Let’s suppose that the Spurs suffer a huge defeat and lose their key-midfielder Christian Eriksen through injury. Meanwhile, the Wolves had an easy evening and their manager had the chance to rest many of their key players.
Let’s say you log in to your Paddy Power mobile account and notice the odds for a draw or away win will drop. The new set will be like 2.00- 3.60-3.50. So if you had chosen the Wolves to win from Monday you’ll see that you are already winning. If you cash out or hedge your bet at this point you have successfully taken the first step of dropping odds betting. In the same manner, you keep on betting on the match result or in special markets (goals, corners, cards etc). But you have to make sure that you spend some time checking the updates for your match of interest. An injury, a change in a team’s formation, the weather conditions or the referee could create chances.
If you are planning to bet on goals (over/under) make sure that you are informed about the weather. Heavy rainfall could easily change the terms and influence the odds. Given that it is a match between two high scoring teams the under 2.5 will be considered as the less likely outcome by the bookmakers. So if you back it, you can make a profit as the odds will drop through the week.
Football dropping odds strategy
Dropping odds football is section of its own. And not only because it is the most popular sport. It is mainly because you can exploit dropping and rising odds more efficiently. More importantly, you don’t need some fancy strategy. Just a snipper’s mentality. Of course, it requires that you have plenty of time to observe the odds movements through the week, have a trustworthy site to watch the odds in real-time and of course that you are already educated on why are odds dropping.
For tips with dropping odds check our free tips page